Lest Our Centenary Celebrations Turn To A Valedictory Session

By Chukwudi OHIRI

On the 1^st of January, 1914, the British colonial masters of Nigeria merged the Northern and Southern protectorates which were hitherto operating as separate entities into one single entity called the Colony and Protectorate of Nigeria. That singular act of ‘amalgamation’ as it is now called in political parlance marked the beginning of the history of Nigeria which clocks hundred (100) on January 1, 2014. Today, Nigerians are divided as to whether to celebrate the centenary anniversary with pomp and pageantry or simply mark it in the lowest possible key.

While the debate continues to rage, an albatross cries behind the scene as though the celebration in itself could turn out to be a bad omen—the beginning of the end of the corporate existence of the entity called Nigeria. This is against the backdrop of the forecast made some years back that Nigeria would break up by 2015. Unfortunately, as the palpable fears continue to grow, many enthusiasts have also dispelled the fears of the common people that the worst is about to happen. Prominent Nigerians and decision makers believe the alarmists are simply crying wolf.

As the events marking the centenary celebration kicks off, that prediction of the experts assembled by the United States National Intelligence Council stares all of us in the face prodding the very pertinent questions: Will Nigeria actually break up in 2015 as predicted by ‘the dooms day prophets’? Could the centenary celebration turn out to be the valedictory party that will mark the beginning of the end of the sovereign entity called Nigeria? No matter the kind of posture being taken by the leaders and eminent personalities, all is but a façade put up to shield the intrinsic fears that are increasingly growing in many as the 2015 date approaches.

To refresh our memories a bit, recall that the National Intelligence Council of the United States had assembled a group of top US experts on Sub-Saharan Africa to discuss likely trends in the region over the next 15 years. In its report, specifically about Nigeria, it said: “Other potential developments might accelerate decline in Africa and reduce even our limited optimism. The most important would be the outright collapse of Nigeria. While currently Nigeria’s leaders are locked in a bad marriage that all dislike but dare not leave, there are possibilities that could disrupt the precarious equilibrium in Abuja. The most important would be a junior officer coup that could destabilize the country to the extent that open warfare breaks out in many places in a sustained manner. If Nigeria were to become a failed state, it could drag down a large part of the West African region. Even state failure in small countries such as Liberia has the effect of destabilizing entire neighborhoods. If millions were to flee a collapsed Nigeria, the surrounding countries, up to and including Ghana, would be destabilized. Further, a failed Nigeria probably could not be reconstituted for many years—if ever—and not without massive international assistance”.

Reacting to the report way back in May 2005 when the report was released, President Obasanjo swiftly wrote a 7 paragraph letter titled ‘Report of the US Intelligence Council’ to the Senate. The text of the letter read thus: “As a means of informing ourselves, I hereby forward a copy of the United States National Intelligence Council document on “Mapping Sub-Saharan Africa’s Future” for your attention. I am sending this to you not because I am alarmed by the report but because if we know what others think of us and about us, we can prevent what they project for us. “As a person who has participated in similar so-called “expert group” on issues, situations and regions, I know that the predictions and projections can be wide off the mark because both politics and economics cannot be absolutely predicted and their dynamics can fool the greatest and best expert. But it is important for us to know that we are being rated low, not because of what is happening to us from outside but because of what we do to, for and by ourselves internally.

“I believe that it is only God and ourselves that can map our present and future. No outsider can do that accurately for us. I know that some people glibly talk of the probability of Nigeria as a failed State. I believe that they are living in the past and incapable of noticing and appreciating the positive strides we are making on all fronts and the determination of the Nigerian people to join hands to consolidate democracy and promote sustainable growth and development.”Because they are stuck to old ideas and dreams as well as stereotypes about us and our capabilities, they cannot see the New Nigeria that we are building collectively as we move beyond the past but allowing the past and present to strengthen and sustain our future.

“Similar experts at the beginning of the second half of the 20th Century predicted worse scenarios for South East Asia. In fact, at the dawn of independence in Africa, Africa’s chances were rated much better than that of South East Asia, but because they pulled themselves together, the predictions and projections about them have been proven false. In the case of Africa, the reverse has been true as the early favourable predictions and projections for the continent have remained largely unattained. “If our detractors cannot see our far-reaching reforms, our fight against waste and corruption, the new culture of prudence and service delivery that is gradually emerging, the various political reforms including the on-going National Political Reform Conference as well as the sacrifices our people are making to ensure economic progress and democratic consolidation as indicators of progress and a radical departure from the past, then they must have some dubious or diabolical benchmarks for measuring efforts at ensuring oneness, unity, stability, indivisibility, prosperity, development and growth of our dear country.

“Our performance in the last three years has, in my view, been very good just as our performance in ensuring stability, peace, economic progress and good governance in West Africa and, indeed, the whole of Africa. “I believe that we can and should disprove the modern experts of the United States Intelligence Council who are like the prophets of doom and by the Grace of God, for Nigeria in this first decade of the 21st Century, we must be determined to show that we are neither a basket case nor walking on a banana peel. “I wish you well as you read the report and would very much appreciate your reactions, perspectives and suggestions. For me, it is a challenge and it calls for extra work. We owe that much to our people, to Africa, humanity and to God Almighty, our Creator. May God bless Nigeria and Africa.”

Eight years after the admonition of the elder statesman that we “should disprove the modern experts of the United States Intelligence Council who are like the prophets of doom and…we must be determined to show that we are neither a basket case nor walking on a banana peel”, can we justifiably say that the battle cry has substantially seized? 

If at this epoch of our national history, a sizeable number of Nigerians are still clamouring for a national confab or sovereign National conference as the case may be to redress injustices, decide on whether to be or not to be, renegotiate the basis of their togetherness in a country that is composed of different peoples with diverse histories, cultures, religions, worldviews and values etc, then there must be something wrong with the polity that needs urgent attention lest the centenary celebration turns to a valedictory session.

Many have said that ab initio, the so-called Nigeria created in 1914 was a complete fraud as it was created not in the interest of Nigeria nor were Nigerians consulted in its making. They insist that Lugard’s Nigeria was in the interest of the British which is still economic till date’ hence there is the urgent need to recreate a Nigeria with the consent of Nigerians, in the interest of Nigeria and by Nigerians themselves. It becomes more worrisome when such calls are coming from men of timbre and caliber in the society from almost all the divides and ethnic groups. Their calls are hinged on the fact that if nothing is urgently done to restructure the polity, assuage the fears of the ‘marginalized’, build a mutual trust among the diverse peoples of Nigeria, the country may be on the brink of dismemberment and implosion.

But the incumbent President of the Federal Republic thinks otherwise. For President Goodluck Jonathan who spoke at the flagging off ceremony of the centenary celebration, the amalgamation of 1914 was not a mistake but an act of God. “The country has come a long way from 1914 achieving great feats in social, academic, political and economic spheres and though still confronted with issues and challenges not uncommon with a multi-cultural society, Nigeria is considered a significant player in the comity of nations,” he said, adding that “the unity of Nigeria is indivisible and non-negotiable.” This optimism apparently borne out of the fact that having been together for such a long time, it would be unthinkable to imagine a collapse. But analysts and historians are quick to point towards the former Soviet Union comprising of people almost homogenous in socio-cultural affinity, they broke up though as a result of external pressure. More recently, the northern and southern Sudan had to disintegrate through a referendum and till date, they have not known peace.

On the eve of our centenary celebration, the country is saddled with myriad of problems such as ethnicity, corruption, unemployment, kidnappings, vandalism, piracy and the mother of them all, terrorism that is almost driving the nation to the much dreaded state of anarchy. Yet the elder statesmen sound more optimistic than ever that it is nothing unusual and quite surmountable.

During a church service to commemorate his one year in office , President Jonathan reassured Nigerians on the indissolubility of Nigeria saying:  “I want to assure all Nigerians that Nigeria cannot be disintegrated by any form” asking Nigerians “to continue in prayers” while the government would continue to do its best “to satisfy the needs of all citizens.”

Former Head of State, General AbdulSalami Abubakar on his part dismissed as unfounded, opinions from various quarters that Nigeria was at the verge of collapse, saying, “Nigeria will not break up. All the noise making is unnecessary; breakage is not a ransom.” Abubakar based his optimism on the fact that that the citizens of the country are bound in cross-cultural and religious integration to the extent that major tribes are found in all villages around the nation. “There is no village you pass through that you won’t find Hausa, Ibo or Yoruba men living there,” he added.

While the voice of optimism continues to soar, there are yet a good number of citizens who genuinely believe that mere rhetoric cannot save Nigeria from extinction if nothing tangible is done to abate the looming calamity. One of such pessimists is elder statesman, Alhaji Abu Gidado who has served as commissioner of finance in both Kaduna and Katsina states as well as a minister of finance in the Abacha era. In a recent interview with one of the national dailies, AlhajiGidado expressed fears that Nigeria may not go beyond the 2015 date as predicted by the US. “There had been quite a number of such predictions and there are so many examples in the world to probably say we may not survive beyond 2015,” he began. “Take Sudan of recent, the contemporary event from Sudan is an example. Sudan from the day it was conceived by the imperialists, was bound to be split into two because there are two cultures put together and the British for the number of years they have ruled Sudan, the approach was really to bring up two countries and they have succeeded. In Nigeria, probably, not to the extent of what transpired in Sudan but up to 1960, before the military coup, was literally divided into the north and south. The north was ruled differently for over half a century through indirect rule, while the south was ruled directly by the British. I have my fears and from the look of things, I hope and pray that Nigeria as a nation survives beyond 2015,” he concluded.

Alhaji (Dr.) Attahiru Dalhatu Bafarawa (Garkuwan Sokoto) is a former Executive Governor of Sokoto State. In a piece he titled, ‘My Fears For Nigeria’ warned that the problem of Nigeria is the dearth of visionary leadership. In his lamentation about the state of the nation, he said: “In fact, my fear increases everyday when I see that our neighboring countries are developing rapidly. When you look at Ghana and Niger Republic and how they are developing rapidly, not even to talk of Dubai and the rest of them, it is simply amazing. Let us even compare Nigeria with sister African countries in terms of discipline and the rule of law e.g. Ghana, Egypt, Niger Republic, just to mention a few. Until we borrow good example from them, we shall continue to deceive ourselves. Calling our country the mother of Africa while we cannot even compare ourselves with the child of our neighbouring countries is self-deceit”. All these are very clear pointers that something is wrong somewhere and if not addressed headlong, we may be sitting on the precipice of collapse and our centenary celebration turned into a valedictory session.

In an exclusive interview with a national magazine recently, Chief EmekaAnyaoku former Commonwealth Secretary General and a ‘quintessential statesman’ aptly expressed unhidden fears that ‘2015 worries him’. Although he is one of those who strongly believe that Nigeria cannot disintegrate he explained that his fears are heightened, “not because of what some Americans have said, but…because of the nature of our politics”. Going on, he said: “my worry stems from the fact that the political competition of 2015 is seen in terms of sectional interest…what happens when these sections are disappointed; when they do not get what they are affirming is their sectional right”.

In terms of a possible break-up, Anyaoku said: What I fear is not a collapse in terms of disintegration because I don’t think this country is going to disintegrate. But what I fear is a collapse in terms of chaos; that you would have a chaotic situation that will make the entity ungovernable as an entity. That’s what I fear”. While lamenting the stunted growth of the nation away from the visions, aspirations and dreams of the founding fathers who had envisaged that “in 20 to 25 years (after independence), the various ethnic groups in Nigeria would have coalesced so much as to make the issue of ethnicity only about (the necessary preservation of) cultures”, he admonished that “there is no part of this nation that will not lose if Nigeria were to break-up”. Chief Anyaoku also seized the opportunity to reinforce his call for a national conference where the issues about restructuring the polity in line with regional autonomy will be addressed.

Another eminent Nigerian who has been very passionate and vocal about the return of the nation to a regional structure and enthronement of true federalism in recent years is General AlaniIpoolaAkninrinadertd. He too has his fears about the unity of Nigeria to the point that he recently charged in an interview with a national magazine: “People are always talking that this country will break. If it breaks, so what!”?

For quite some time now, Gen. Akinrinade has been working assiduously to unite the Yoruba kingdom using the Yoruba Assembly (as though he was preparing them for an eventual break up that may come when it will come). He is equally at the vanguard of those clamouring for a national conference as the only panacea that would save Nigeria from collapse. Unequivocally, he said in the same interview mentioned earlier that “If some people feel cheated in a group (as is prevalent in Nigeria now), the house cannot stand”. Elaborating more on his views about the unity of Nigeria, he said: “My first option is for Nigeria to stay together as an entity…. But if this thing (referring to the present political structure and misgivings) is cutting our throat, then certainly at some point, we will get to the realization that that (break up) is the answer to the misery of all the people. I am not just talking about Yoruba alone. I am talking about a whole congregation of 250, they say, ethnic nationalities in Nigeria. So be it….All we are saying is that if we don’t do something (now), this thing will break”. He blamed the current BokoHaram ‘plague’ on “injustice which brought poverty and stratification of society where some people think they don’t have any part in this estate and therefore if it burns down, what does it matter” adding that “that’s the way revolutions start.”? Akinrinade bemoaned the sorry state of the nation where all the sections are complaining of one injustice or the other and the leaders feign deaf ears to their various cries. “Let us reorganize this system so that everybody can feel really comfortable in it. Don’t let us deceive ourselves, nobody is comfortable in Nigeria. Is the Ogoni? Is it the Ijaw? Is it the Igbo? Is it the Yoruba? Even the Fulani people that we always accuse of being overlords, I don’t think they are confident that this thing (Nigeria) is going to last,” Akinrinade warned.

The threat of a possible break up or secession is not a new phenomenon in Nigeria as its ugly head reared up right from the days of negotiating for independence. The Sarduana of Sokoto, Ahmadu Bello had threatened secession Nigeria if independence meant “replacing European domination with southern domination”. Till date, the fear of one group dominating the other is still alive hence the crazy drive to control the centre at all cost. Before this time in 1950 during the constitutional conference, the Northern delegates were quick to declare that the North must have 50 per cent of the seats or it would secede. Invariably as BayoOlupohunda captured it in his article, ‘Will Nigeria Break Up In 2015?’ “It is on record that the idea of secession was first hatched by the North, nursed by the West, and executed in the East. The Sarduana first called for secession when he became afraid of southern domination in the early 1950s. The Emir of Zaria during the constitutional conference of 1950, called for Northern secession if the North was not given 50 per cent of the seats. Northern politicians in 1953 through the Northern House of Assembly and House of Chiefs called for confederation and separation in opposition to a motion for self-government sponsored by the Action Group. The idea of secession was equally nursed by the Action Group in 1954 when it insisted that a secession clause be inserted into the proposed constitution. When the Easterners through the Premier, Dr. Michael Okpara, threatened to secede because of the problems of “the mistake of 1914″, the Sardauna himself was quick to point out to him that there was no secession clause in the nation’s fundamental laws, notwithstanding, the East seceded and declared for the sovereign state of Biafra”.

 Nigeria has no reason whatsoever for Nigeria to disintegrate in spite of deepening ethnic mistrust, widespread poverty, vestiges of political bitterness and other political malaise. However, there are centrifugal forces which if unchecked might degenerate to chaos and ultimately, disintegration. The ever growing mistrust among the major ethnic groups who appear armed to the teeth to wrestle power at all cost in the center. Don’t forget, the current insurgence of Boko Haram attacks gathered this unprecedented momentum the moment a Southern minority was elected into power at the expense of the North.  Prior to this, when the nation was thrown into political impasse following the leave of absence by the then President Yar ‘Adua, the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta, MEND had warned in a statement signed by its spokesman, JomoGbomo, that Goodluck Jonathan must be allowed to occupy the presidential seat if it eventually becomes vacant. “It is not the birth right of any section of this country to rule or misrule Nigeria…Should a coup be attempted or any harm befall him (Jonathan), MEND will no longer be talking about fiscal federalism but a Niger Delta secession from the contraption called Nigeria as we are capable of starting and sustaining a civil war.”

Only recently and following the conviction of Henry Okah, a key figure in the Niger Delta militancy crisis, by a South African court, the group (although later refuted by the authentic spokesman of MEND, JomoGbomo) threatened fire and brimstone against Nigeria if Okah is handed down the proposed sentence. The threats were so laden with catastrophe that it cannot be ignored. “To our natural resources, there will soon be a massive earthquake that will be triggered by our nuclear war head. This earthquake will destroy the entire oil wells, oil pipelines, especially to Kaduna refinery; oil installations, oil rigs and what have you. When it happens, which we know will be very soon, the government and those owners of these oil wells and installation will know it’s a different ball game,” the statement read in part and coming on the eve of our centenary celebration.

As the menace of the Boko-Haram sect continues to spread across the northern part of the country and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) with its attendant loss of lives and property, the National Coordinator of Oodua People’s Congress (OPC), OtunbaGani Adams, raised fears over Nigeria’s unity and existence as a corporate entity should the menace spread to the Souuth. He also warned members of the dreaded Boko Haram sect to steer clear of the South-west as any attempt to extend their activities to the zone would be resisted by the OPC, the socio-cultural group of the Yoruba nation. He too had advocated for a Sovereign National conference saying: “The amalgamation of this country in 1914, we have to re-examine it. Most of our leaders did not agree that they wanted to form a nation; the British colonial masters just forced us together because of their own interests”. He then warned the Boko Haram sect that “Coming to South-West would be the greatest mistake they will make. If they do that, it would turn to serious uprising because we will not fold our hands and allow some people to continue to take the lives of our people”. He further stressed that “any extension beyond such (Northern) boundaries clearly connotes the pursuing of a territorial ambition; and any people provoking other people through territorial ambition should ultimately expect a war. And in warfare, everything and anything is fair”.

In May last year, when members of the CPC from Niger State paid Buhari a courtesy visit in Kaduna, he reportedly fired a threatening 2015 warning saying: “God willing, by 2015, something will happen. They either conduct a free and fair election or they go a very disgraceful way…If what happened in 2011 (referring to the purported rigging) should again happen in 2015, by the grace of God, the dog and the baboon would all be soaked in blood.’’ rather than caution their kinsman for such an inciting statement, 19 northern governors allegedly told journalists that nothing was wrong with Buhari’s statement as he only said it to keep the Federal Government on its toes in order to ensure a free-and-fair election in 2015.

Responding to the statement, the presidency was quoted as saying that Buhari was blood-thirsty and suffering from “combat withdrawal syndrome.” It is on record that Buhari’s failure to win the presidential election in 2011 led to sectarian violence that took the lives and property of many in the North although it is still very vague if he was directly responsible for the mayhem.

Whatever syndrome may be allegedly suffering from, the truth remains that 2015 portends so much for Nigeria that adequate and conscientious care ought to be taken lest the 2014 centenary celebration turns to a farewell party. It is not enough to rest on one’s oars and pretend that all is well when the various nagging questions bestriding and threatening the unity of the nation are treated with kid gloves.

Down the South-Eastern part of Nigeria, the Movement for the Actualization of Sovereign State of Biafra, MASSOB appears to be brandishing its sword in readiness for reprisal attack if the violence in the north eventually spreads to the East. Apart from that, the group has also complained of incessant harassment of its members by security agents even when its activities have remained largely non-violent. Director of Information of MASSOB, Mr. UchennaMadu, warned that should harassment and attacks of its members by the Islamic sect continue uncontrollably, it might be pushed into violent acts, describing the Boko Haram’s attacks in the country as a child’s play compared to what it would do if no action was taken against the sect by security agencies. “We believe in non-violent approach to issues but they are pushing us to the wall; they are provoking MASSOB to become violent and if we decide to resort to violent this time around, even the Nigeria military cannot contain our attacks….The Boko Haram issue is a child’s play compared to what we can do if we are provoked into violence. I tell you the entire Nigeria would be on fire,” Uchenna had said. The proliferation of ethnic militia gas remained a potential landmine waiting to explode if various injustices they cry about are not adequately redressed.

The presidency has continued to reassure Nigerians as is expected of it and well meaning Nigerians have spoken variously on the 2015 threat. The various arguments all have their strong and weak points. While some dismissed it with the wave of hands, others insist that the predictions and meteoric threats should not be taken with a pinch of salt.

Pundits have argued that the Arab spring was instigated by dissatisfaction with the rule of local governments, though some have speculated that wide gaps in income levels may have had a hand as well. Numerous factors have led to the protests, including issues such as dictatorship or absolute monarchy, human rights violations, political corruption (demonstrated by Wiki leaks diplomatic cables), economic decline, unemployment, extreme poverty, and a number of demographic structural factors,  such as a large percentage of educated but dissatisfied youth within the population. Are these conditions prevalent in today’s Nigeria? However, when the revolutions came, there were no ominous signs suggesting it would come exactly when it did.

The Tunisian Revolution, or Jasmine Revolution, began on Dec. 17, 2010 after Mohammed Bouazizi, a 26-year-old Tunisian man, set himself on fire in front of a local municipal office. According to Aljazeera, earlier that day, Tunisian police confiscated his cart and beat him because he did not have a permit. He went to the municipal office to file a complaint, where workers there ignored him. Bouazizi then set himself on fire. Pockets of demonstration followed culminating in full blown revolution that led to the deposing of Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali—the president of the country. It did not take an army mutiny to ignite the fires of revolution in the Arab world and so changing of military personnel from time to time may not be the solution to averting the looming crisis, but rather, good governance, equity, fairness and justice which must not only be administered, but seen to have been administered.

The conditions that led to the Civil war of 1967-1970 are still very much prevalent. The wanton killings of non-northerners (and even northerners who appear to challenge the injustice) is ubiquitous in the north again. Churches are burnt with impunity perhaps to incite a religious war or give it a semblance of such. The issues that led to Aburi Conference still hunt the nation today and Ojukwu’s foresight over 40 years ago is now dawning on the elites now. Little wonder why Gen. Akinrinade confessed in his interview that “there was no substantive reason anybody should have gone to that civil war” since the issues raised such as true federalism, resource control, fear of domination, devolution of powers, state police etc are still relevant in today’s Nigeria.

Prelude to the 1967 war, the Igbo of the South east were butchered in their numbers, but today, even the Yoruba are not spared implying that the situation appears worse now than then just as feeling of marginalization still fills the air and yet many still believe that the centenary celebration will not be akin to a valedictory party. Confirming the above assertion, the OPC leader Dr. Frederick Fasehun had lamented that “Last year (2011), the bodies of Yoruba graduates serving their fatherland in the National Youth Service Corps (NYSC) were brought home to us. OPC takes this opportunity to alert governors of the South-West on the need to take immediate measures to preempt and prevent the killing of our youths participating in the NYSC. The same advice goes to Yoruba indigenes residing in the North; they must do the needful to avoid danger overtaking them in the land of their sojourning”. 

The 2012 failed state index published by Funds for Peace, an independent research and educational organization based in Washington DC, United States of America and promoted by the conservative Foreign Policy journal ranked Nigeria as number 14 out of 177 rated. Harping on this, Prof. Nwabueze had, at the 14th Annual Convention of the Igbo Youth Movement (IYM) in Enugu recently, stated that Nigeria was fast sliding into a failed state. According to him, “this country is on the verge of becoming a failed state, there are so many failed states in Africa and Nigeria is on the verge of getting that status of a failed state. “Before now, we didn’t know about kidnapping, but it has become a way of life. Did we know about bombings before? But today, churches, schools, offices are being bombed on daily basis; the worst is that the bombers are not coming from outside the country, we are bombing ourselves. “A nation that cannot provide a credible election for her people is a failed state. In 2003, 2011 we had no credible elections, yet we are talking about democracy. A country that cannot secure social and economic rights for her people is a failed state. Read chapter 2 of Nigeria’s constitution and you will understand what I am talking about, they are not leaders but looters,” he said. On the issue of corruption, Nwabueze said, “corruption was another disturbing issue in the country and any state that allows this kind of unbridled corruption is failing.”

After living together for 100 years, Issues of citizenship are still begging for answers. Who is a Nigerian citizen? Before independence, a Hausa man was once a mayor of Enugu. Is it still possible to have it now when clauses about ‘state of origin’ are taking center stage in state employments? Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe won elections in the West during the First Republic, can that happen today? Can an Hausa man become a Councillor in Awka or an Ibo man a Local Government Chairman in Ondo State even when he had lived there for 20 years? These are questions that tend to suggest that the only ligament binding the nation together is ‘Oil’ which has been predicted to finish in the next 45 years. Many pundits (local and international) tend to believe that once the oil wells dry up, the basis of Nigerian unity will crumble.

In spite of all these pointers, there are still indications that Nigeria will still remain an indivisible entity beyond 2015. Without fear of contradiction, there is even now an indication that ethno-religious prejudices which have worked against the country could also work in favour of it.

Consider what happens now that DrGoodluckEbeleAzikiwe Jonathan is seated in Aso Rock. Before the 2011 presidential election, the Igbo ethnic group believed (and they still believe so) that Dr Jonathan was an Igbo man. With names like ‘Ebele’ and ‘Azikiwe’, it was difficult to convince any Igbo man or woman that the ‘lucky’ Otuoke-born president was not from the Old Eastern Region. Also, take a closer look at the people of the South-South who have cried blue murder over the years for being relegated to the background. The two regions of the South-South and the South-East always believe that any criticism from any region in the North or even South-West now is ill-conceived and has dots of ulterior motive. The feeling of these two regions is that the North and the South-West have had their fair shares of the presidency and should give Dr. Jonathan a breathing space.

Even though some personalities from both regions have lampooned the president, it was only meant to remind him that he needed to sit up and do more. The majority of South-South people believe that Dr Jonathan should complete his two terms of eight years. Chief Edwin Clark has not hesitated to aver that his ‘son’ Jonathan must contest in 2015. Is this not a clear indication that no South-Southerner will ever agree to join in the call for revolution or war if ever it is suggested? If a South-Easterner emerges in 2015, do you think any Igbo man or even a South-Southerner will talk of disintegration or revolution? In fact, the Igbo people will look at it from the prism of destroying a government of the Igbo man and will now fight it as a war against any region desirous of having such an agenda.

More so, did South-Western Yorubas talk of revolution in all the eight years of Obasanjo even though the administration treated Nigerians with reckless abandon? During the military era, the North-Central and the North-West were largely in power. Even though these were military interregna, the way things were run indicated Northern domination of key offices and positions in the country. Was there any call for revolution or war? Even during the reign of late Musa Yar’Adua the Niger Delta militants wreaked havoc on the economy and wanted revolution. But the North wanted something different since ‘it was their turn.’   These instances might seem elementary, considering that revolution does not often need anybody’s approval. But just unlike countries which experienced the Arab Spring, Nigeria is deeply divided along religious and ethnic lines.

Furthermore, no region or ethnic or religious group rallies behind the other when it is agitating for any meaningful thing. Ogoni people fought for environmental degradation, yet no non-Ogoni stepped out to fight along with them. Igbo people were massacred before the war yet no region thought it wise to agitate to prevent an impending war.  How many people from other regions fought with the Niger Delta over marginalization and environmental degradation issues? All these point to the fact that the tendency to live together far outweighs the tendency to divide, yet the leaders must not rest on their oars lest the centenary celebration turns bitter.

Pini Jason,public affairs analyst in his excellent article entitled, ‘Revolution? Wake me up if it ever starts’ wrote: “I do not see Nigeria breaking up as many people glibly talk or wish. Nigeria will simply continue to wobble, hobble and fumble along; it will not break up and it will not make it either, because even as bad as things are, there is a class that finds Nigeria a heaven! That class will continue to ensure the survival of the goose that lays them the golden egg, even if it is with wet and dirty feathers!”

As the Nation continues with the events to mark the centenary celebration which will come to a climax on January 1, 2014, there is the need for intense sober reflection and proactive actions to guard against the dreaded break-up. If it is true as alleged, that the amalgamation of 1914 was a ‘mistake’, Nigerians can now sit on a round table to right the wrong. There is never a wrong time to do the right thing just as there can never be the right time to do the wrong thing. United we stand and divided we fall as the old saying goes. If the United State with its population, diverse nationalities can stand strong today, then Nigeria can. All Americans are not aborigines, Christians or from the same descent but for a reasonably long time, the country has been the major economic world power. America had wars in the past but has been able to survive. It is therefore in the interest of Nigeria and Nigerians to remain united and efforts must be consciously made to see that Nigeria works to prove detractors wrong. Let the centenary celebration mark a new beginning of a strong and virile nation that will take its rightful place among the comity of nations.