By Chukwudi OHIRI
Gradually,
years have turned to months, months to weeks, weeks to days and now, in a
matter of hours, the long awaited general elections stare us right in the face.
The gladiators having supposedly crossed their ‘Ts’ and dotted their ‘Is’, the
press has been awash with permutations from pundits and bookmakers—some, in
favour of the incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan of the Peoples Democratic
Party (PDP) and others, in favour of the of the main opposition figure, General
Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Party (APC).
One
thing unique about this year’s election is that locally and internationally,
all seem to agree with the notion that Nigeria is going to the polls for the
first time in its chequered history on a level playing ground for both the
incumbent and the major contender. For the first time, the presidential
election is going to be keenly contested in a most gruesome atmosphere shrouded
in uncertainties as to the outcome. The whole world has its eyes attentively
glued towards Nigeria.
Penultimate week, Israel held its presidential
election. That election did not draw attention of the world as much as the one
Nigeria is about to conduct despite the fact that the stability or otherwise of
Israel in the Middle East has grave consequences for the world at large. Yet,
it did not generate as much frenzy as the one in the offing in Nigeria. In
fact, not many people knew that Israel was about to hold a major election at
the time. It came like a flash of lightening and before one knew it, it was
gone. The hullabaloo associated with Nigeria’s election is a pointer that its
success or flop will have far reaching implications beyond Nigeria’s shores.
How ready is INEC?
Whether the umpire—the Independent National Electoral
Commission (INEC) is ready or not is inconsequential at this point at least
until after the polls. One undeniable fact is that had the elections held on
February 14 as earlier scheduled, it would have been an unmitigated disaster as
unfolding events have clearly shown that apart from the security issue which
was amplified by INEC as main reason for the postponement, INEC was anything
but ready. Nigerians must remain grateful to those who furtively or openly
canvassed for the initial postponement from 14th February to March
28. Except if there was a deliberate ploy by default to get it wrong from the
outset. Inadvertently, has admitted that all was not well with its readiness
asides from security.
The
question about INEC’s present readiness is a very dicey one. As usual, Prof.
Jega has repeatedly told Nigerians that its commission is sufficiently prepared
for the polls. In s[pit of these assurances, there are palpable fears in many
quarters that the March 28 polls will never be hitch-free in terms of
logistics. This has become like stock-in-trade of INEC. Of course, it will be a
tall order to expect that INEC has to be one hundred per cent before the
elections can be held. However, analysts appear divided over INEC’s claim of
being substantially ready. The confusion still trailing the distribution of
Voter Cards is one area that may puncture INEC’s claims. With only a few hours
to the elections, INEC has not refuted the allegations that some PVCs are yet
to be printed. News of large chunk of cards being erroneously sent to wrong
locations still trickle in without clear solutions in sight. PVC distributions
in Ogun State and Lagos are still shrouded in controversies without INEC coming
clean on how it intends to resolve the impasse. Reports have it that thousands
of residents in these states hit brick walls late last week in the last minute
rush to collect the cards. In many cases, INEC officials were either not found
or they arrived very late into the afternoons with one tale or the other as to
why the cards were not handy. In most of the distribution centres, the
frustrated voters left in anger. The import of all these hick-cuffs is that
millions of Nigerians who are ready and willing to exercise their civic
responsibilities will be disenfranchised for no fault of theirs. The silence
and complacency of the opposition party—APC in the face of these discrepancies
is suspect. This is unlike the APC we know. Perhaps, the unequivocal vote of
confidence passed on Jega and INEC by the APC is perhaps, the reason why the
PDP seems to be crying foul, alleging a grand conspiracy and complicity by INEC
and the opposition party. One thing is sure. Many Nigerians will be
disenfranchised even when the PVCs are distributed on the election day proper.
The Nagging Controversy over the
use of Military
The
yet unresolved issue or rather, the lack of consensus on whether then military
will be deployed during the election or not is quite worrisome. Understandably,
unfolding events have given credence to the agitation of the opposition for
sticking to their guns on non-use of the military during the election. The
integrity and non-partisanship of the military has been put to question in
recent past. The undeniable truth is that it will be more beneficial than
detrimental to use the military during the polls. Most analysts who initially
opposed the plan to deploy the military are beginning to see reasons with those
that insist. As a matter of fact, not a few electorate have vowed that they
will have nothing to do with the elections if there was no adequate security on
ground to guarantee safety of lives and property during and after the polls.
The absence of the military will aggravate the already worsening spate of voter
apathy that is prevalent. The rigid position of the opposition is quite
apprehensive.
The
constitution clearly holds that the military have no business with elections.
Strengthening this provision is the recent judgement by a competent court of
jurisdiction that the military must not be involved in elections. However, the
midpoint of this impasse will be that while the police act as first line
security during the polls, the military and other paramilitary groups can be
strategically and conspicuously placed on standby to forestall any breakdown of
law and order. Moreover, the services of the Naval and Air force will be highly
indispensable in the logistics of INEC. If the federal government decides to
officially withdraw the military and the paramilitary at the eleventh hour in
obedience to the court judgement and the bidding of the opposition, this will
be a sure recipe for disaster. Caution must therefore be exercised while clear
rules of engagement must be spelt out.
What the Opinion Polls say
As
usual and as expected, opinion polls and surveys from independent and national
have been inundating the polity though not without confliction propositions. The
common denominator in the submissions is that out of a total of 14 candidates
vying for the presidency, only two are considered real contenders.
For
the National
Think Tank Group, victory would go to the candidate of the APC, General
Muhammadu Buhari. A two-page analysis of the survey,
tagged: “Straw Prediction of 2015 Presidential Election”, made available to
Journalists by Dr. Peter Orji, predicted that Buhari/APC will carry the day with
an estimated votes of 15.4 million while President Goodluck Jonathan/PDP would
garner about 11 million. To arrive at
this conclusion, the group stated that it based its forecast on “a
careful study of the demographics of Nigeria voting patterns, based on an
unbiased analysis of how voters shall cast their votes.”
The group submitted that Buhari
would lead in the North-East, North- West, North-Central and South-West, while
Jonathan would win in the South-South and South-East. It also explained that
unlike in 2011, Buhari “will secure substantial votes in the North-Central and
greatly improve his showing in the South-East.” In its summary, the group put the
distribution of the votes across the zones in the following order: “North-Central,
PDP, 1.73million, APC, 1.86million. North-East, PDP, 1.3million, APC,
2.55million. North- West, PDP 2.15million, APC, 5.65million. South-East, PDP
1.65million, APC, 650,000. South-South, PDP, 2,.2million APC, 1.7million.
South- West, PDP, 2million, APC, 2.9million. FCT, PDP, 150,000, APC, 200,000.
Conversely, an independent
national opinion poll carried out around the country by a United Kingdom-based
firm Kevin, Charlyn and Kimberly claimed that President Goodluck Jonathan would
coast home with victory ahead of General Muhammadu Buhari (rtd), with a margin
of 13 per cent. The survey, according to the group revealed that 77per cent of
the respondents went for Dr. Jonathan while Buhari scored 27 percent from over
30,000 respondents interviewed in the survey.
Unveiling the result of the
survey to a cross section of journalists in Abuja, Vice President of the firm
Mr. Vince Onyekwelu, said the results were collated from a survey monkey sample
of 28,000 respondents, 2000 respondents from Facebook and Twitter, and another
300 respondents from face-to-face contacts and telephone interviews.
Elsewhere, political research group, Eurasia,
presented its analysis of the 2015 presidential election. According to the
assessment, Eurasia tipped President Goodluck Jonathan for a narrow victory
over Muhammadu Buhari. The survey lowered the probability of President
Jonathan’s re-election to 55% as an energized Buhari campaign gains momentum in
swing regions. It argued that the issues of weak security and corruption will
play to Buhari’s advantage, yet, machine politics and access to money are
likely to decide Nigeria’s election, leaving Jonathan and the PDP with the
edge.
Landmines ahead of the
elections
There is clearly an uneasy calm in the polity.
Thanks to the postponement of the polls earlier scheduled for February 14. This
‘divine’ postponement calmed a lot of nerves and literarily changed the tensed
atmosphere. However, pundits strongly believe that whoever emerges winner at
the polls, there will be skirmishes of violence followed by accusations and
counter accusations of systematic rigging. It is however believed that the
security agencies will rally to the rescue to abate the potency of the danger.
The issue of PVC distribution will surely
resonate prior to and after the polls. The fear is that some parties will hide
under this anomaly to question the integrity of the polls. Already, allegations
of a deliberate lopsided distribution are in the air and it is most likely to
be amplified when eventually a loser emerges.
The use of card reader for the polls is like a
beautiful bride with leprosy. Many analysts see it as a disaster-in-waiting.
Unfortunately, there seem to be no going back on its usage as any attempt to do
so will truncate the entire process. The test run organised by INEC a few weeks
ago revealed significant flaws which INEC downplayed for whatever reasons.
In the first instance, the main essence of the
card reader is to authenticate not just the card, but the card holder through
the unique features of fingerprints. The arrangement is that once the card
reader is unable to read the fingerprints, an incidence form will be issued to
the voter to enable him vote. This defeats the whole essence of the card reader
given the magnanimity of allegations levelled against INEC. The implication of
this is that if truly, as alleged by the PDP, INEC connived with APC to compromise
the process as its complacency suggests, then INEC could possibly have issued
millions of card which will surely pass through the card readers but cannot
authenticate fingerprints. This can give room for multiple voting especially in
those areas where there is a general consensus to malign a particular
candidate. In 2011, reports had it that supposed party agents sold out their
principal to favour particular candidates on both sides. The decider therefore
depended on who outrigs the other. In theory, INEC has reportedly provided
safeguards against this scenario but mischief makers on both parties must be
lurking around to abuse the incidence form.
Beyond the fears about rigging, a situation where
the card reader was only able to authenticate the fingerprints of 54% of voters
(as reported in some of the test stations) during the test run that witnessed
very low turnout should be a source of worry. The fear here is that when more
people turn up for accreditation, the margin of error might likewise more than
triple. The inherent frustration that will naturally come from voters,
especially when they will have to queue
for hours unending due to slow accreditations process occasioned by
malfunctioning card readers may trigger unrest.
Finally, the issue of Buihari’s certificate may
have been subdued, there is this apprehension that the courts might give a
verdict that may not be palatable to all in the aftermath of the election. The
apprehension may even be more within the APC as internal wrangling may lead to
disgruntled party members trying to explore that loophole if victory comes to
the party. The implication might be that the real winner may have to yield the victory
to runners up coveting that position.
The War on Boko Haram
Emerging
reports from the theatre of war—the North East, are that nearly all the
territories captured by the insurgents have been retaken by the Nigerian
forces. The President and
Commander-in-Chief, President Goodluck Jonathan has reassured Nigerians that
all the captured territories will be liberated before the polls. This sounds
like a promise kept, however, the internally Displaced Persons, IDPs have yet
to return to their bases. Non indigenes who fled from those areas may not be in
a hurry to go back and this may have some negative consequences on the overall
rating of the elections.
As Nigerians March out on March 28 and April 11,
all eyes are on the country to see how fair or foul the elections may turn out
to be. One thing is certain. The 2015 election will likely be a watershed in
the history of Nigeria.
